ProfitCurve fits an econometric model to every campaign in your portfolio. It computes the marginal return on every dollar and tells you precisely where to reallocate.
Actual BirdRock Home data — 5 product families across ~600 days. Switch families, drag the sliders, watch everything update.
Total ROAS looks identical. Marginal ROAS reveals where the money actually goes.
Every family shows growth opportunity. Four of five are capped — the true optimal is beyond the observed data.
| Family | Model | Current $/day | Optimal $/day | mROAS | Headroom | Verdict |
|---|
Every recommendation comes with warnings. If the model is extrapolating, uncertain, or hitting data limits — you'll know.
True optimal is beyond observed data. Capped at max historical spend as safety floor.
Model inflection point past observed range. Extrapolation risk if scaling aggressively.
Model ceiling exceeds observed max. Saturation point can't be verified.
Marginal ROAS above breakeven at highest spend. More data needed for true saturation.
Every campaign gets its own fitted model with bootstrap confidence intervals. Any channel.
Specific dollar moves. "Move $X/day from overspenders to underspenders."
Where every campaign sits on its curve. Verdict bar with narrative. Updated weekly.
Capped-optimal detection, inflection flags, ceiling warnings.
Proprietary Python library deployed to your infrastructure. Licensed for your team's use.
AI-generated executive summary for CMO/CFO: findings, actions, impact.
Your team trained to interpret, run, and execute reallocations.
Hill curves, saturation, water-filling allocation, bootstrap CIs, safety rails.
30-minute call. We'll look at your portfolio and tell you where the money is.